The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Kreminna itself, Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna), Dibrova (6km southwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). Russia opened its invasion with a page from the superpower playbook as written by the United States and its allies in the 1991 Gulf War. The way the Russians have advanced, which is that they have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly, not risk of getting bogged down in mud. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. I'm not talking to anybody on the streets. [69], Activity in Russian-occupied Areas(Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems). [40]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [41]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. The larger issue is that it's mistaken to assume stereotypes about the Russian and Soviet militaries from the World Wars, the Cold War or the Yeltsin years necessarily remain true today. Have they proved reliable in the past? Moreover, Russia has also made some important progress in swarming technology. [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Ukrainian Polohy Mayor Yuriy Konovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration area in the southern part of Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, on February 27. Theyve sent in only about two-thirds of the troops and weapons that had been poised on the Ukrainian border. And it appears to keep happening, with Russian forces unable to avoid the mines. It's true a significant chunk It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Avdiivka area near Kamianka; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske; Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Pervomaiske. The military-historical caricature is that Moscow relied on the sheer mass of bodies and heavy weapons to defeat qualitatively superior foes. [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. pic.twitter.com/ZpJRkRStLw, Vuhledar, and Russians tried it again. Meanwhile, it is the Ukrainians who've seen more updated in their defenses, adopting fast-moving guerrilla tactics and using social media to relentlessly put out their message. [33]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http [35]https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 [36]https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's weapons should be modernized, in a rare hint that the Kremlin is acknowledging its military hardware is outdated. No tolerance of casualties.". But the Russian army isnt cut out for lightning strikes. Russian occupation officials continue efforts to use educational institutions to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied territories. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Ukraines military could pull back from the key eastern stronghold of Bakhmut, an adviser to the Ukrainian president said Wednesday, MCFATE: I talked to people on the inside. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. [47]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 [48]https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m [49]https://suspilnedot media/399572-zsu-vlucili-po-rosianah-u-timcasovo-okupovanomu-misti-pologi-na-zaporizzi/, [50]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/. Pretty outdated. That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no mans land straight out of World War I. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. And certainly, you know, when conventional war in Ukraine fails, which I think it will, Putin will move to an unconventional war phase where he's going to flatten cities like he did in Grozny, too, and Aleppo in Syria. Their caution partly explains why they still dont have air superiority over all of Ukraine, for example, American officials said. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. - hybrid warfare involving sort of other kinds of tactics. [60]A prominent Russian milblogger on February 28 amplified a report from a Russian soldier on December 9 that Russia has also fallen behind Ukrainian forces in terms of drone production and drone-operator training. The result is that Ukraine, using Javelin anti-tank missiles, has stalled the convoy headed for Kyiv by blowing up tank after tank. Deutsche Wellereported that Lukashenko will sign a large package of agreements on developing joint projects, trade, economic, investment, humanitarian cooperation, and political cooperation with China during his three-day visit. Having the Ukrainians just wreck your airborne units, elite Russian units, has to be devastating for Russian morale, said Frederick W. Kagan, an expert on the Russian military who leads the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. Russia has advanced fighter planes, a formidable navy and marines capable of multiple amphibious landings, as they proved early in the invasion when they launched from the Black Sea and headed toward the city of Mariupol. Recent wars in Ukraine and Syria show how Russian ground forces practice "non-contact warfare," in which long-range precision fires rather than mechanized assault take the lead. [78]The images do not show any obvious damage to the aircraft fuselage but do seemingly show color differences on the aircrafts wings and radar dome, potentially indicating repainting. But a dissection of the Russian militarys performance so far, compiled from interviews with two dozen American, NATO and Ukrainian officials, paints a portrait of young, inexperienced conscripted soldiers who have not been empowered to make on-the-spot decisions, and a noncommissioned officer corps that isnt allowed to make decisions either. [51]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [52]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [53]https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/28/v-erevane-zaderzhali-rossiyanina-podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve; https://www.police dot am/ru/news/view/%D5%BE%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A4%D5%A1%D5%AC%D5%A B%D5%A6%D5%B4280223.html;https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355;https://ovddot news/express-news/2023/02/28/podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve-zaderzhali-v, [54]https://www.themoscowtimes dot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355, [55]https://www.azatutyundot am/a/32292266.html. [28], Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Oblast. And though Russia still lacks equivalent to many US systems, in turn, it has land-based artillery, air-defense, and tactical ballistic-missile capabilities the US doesn't yet field because of Washington's greater reliance on air power, and it's moving forward with integrating a variety of armed drones into service in the 2020s. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) that expired in 2002, U.S. and other Western officials said, and others have surrendered and sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting. And what's their - and why do they do it? That's clear. If you look at whats on the other side, youll see that there isnt really an opponent anymore, he said. | WebRussia held its annual Victory Day military parade in Moscow on Monday but canceled the air force flyby over what it said was bad weather. So they reported lies to him instead. Unspecified Belarusian airborne elementslikely of the Belarusian 38th Airborne Brigade conducted airborne parachute exercises from Il-76 aircraft at the Brest Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, on February 28.[81]. This is what the Russian military has done elsewhere, notably in Chechnya, when its officers feel frustrated. This is reflected in the Ground Force's preferred ad-hoc fighting formation, the Battalion Tactical Group, which combines infantry and tank companies with an unusually large quantity of artillery. most of it. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023.pdf, Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts), Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. [68]Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on May 15. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. [21]US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia. He's going back to the 1940s. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may facilitate sanctions evasion schemes between Russia and China during his official trip to Beijing, China from February 28 March 2. [64]Prigozhin praised the soldiers and stated that he has already asked Russian military authorities to transfer them to a Wagner subgroup. But this doesnt mean they will win in the long run. Russian authorities appear to be escalating their promotion of false flag information operations to distract from their lack of tangible battlefield gains and slow down the provision of Western tanks and other aid in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th However, this change may have no real impact, as present mobilization law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting even after their contracts expire. Depends on which standards the word outdated is based. By Hollywood standards, its certainly mostly outdated, there are even personnel wearing 1 In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 So I think we - you know, and the laws of war will once again prove rather feckless in changing his decision to do that. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. One year into the war in Ukraine, the conflict does not appear closer to ending, and Russian tanks appear no better at avoiding destruction. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast), Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 28. Without achieving and sustaining momentum, the Russian forces got [76]The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian occupation officials in Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast are forcing students to write letters to Russian military personnel and attend daily hour-long informational sessions that present the Russian framing of the war in Ukraine.[77]. It hasn't - the horror hasn't started yet. But European countries say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. [6]ISW has assessed that Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. They have been updated through the decades. Do the sources know the information? Others have reportedly been found knocking on village doors for food or, in one case, asking a local police station for fuel. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. An early example is the re-introduction of outdated T-62 tanks to Russian service. Want to write for Task & Purpose? Mines have played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine over the past year. Thousands who fled Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, arrived at the train station in Lviv, in the west. [4]The recent resurgence of several standard Russian information operations in the form of false flag warnings and tired nuclear threats suggests that Russian officials are increasingly trying to mitigate the informational impacts of a continued lack of Russian battlefield successes as well as to slow down the provision of Western tanks and other equipment in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. You know, the U.S. Marine Corps? [71]ISW reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed in a February 16 meeting with Russian Commissioner for Childrens Rights Maria Lvova-Belova that the Kremlin is directly involved in facilitating the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. Videos show lead tanks getting disabled and the following tanks struggling to maneuver without meeting the same fate. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. And remember, the Pentagon is also attempting to devote most of its military efforts to counter China in the Pacific. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. [74]Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on February 27 that Russias forced deportation of Ukrainian children is probably the largest forced deportation in modern history and a genocidal crime. The brutal tactics may eventually overwhelm Ukraines defenses, but they will almost certainly fuel a bloody insurgency that could bog down Russia for years, military analysts say. We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. Of bodies and heavy weapons to defeat qualitatively superior foes to transfer them to a Wagner subgroup to the.! An early example is the re-introduction of outdated T-62 tanks to Russian.... [ 40 ] https: //t.me/sashakots/38685, Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian concentration in! Using Javelin anti-tank missiles, has stalled the convoy headed for Kyiv by blowing tank... 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